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MLB Betting Model – My Mathematical Betting Strategy For Baseball

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Building an MLB betting model can be a complicated thing to do, but once you have one, it becomes the most important part of betting analysis. Below, you will find an explanation of my baseball betting model and how I started with a mathematical betting strategy. Learn also what does my baseball betting model includes, and how to use it for successful betting.

What is an MLB betting model?

MLB betting model is a method, that helps you to project your own MLB odds before you bet, by using statistics, sports betting analytics, and algorithms. This gives you a chance to compare your odds with bookmakers’ odds, find +EV bets and maximize profits.

There are two fundamental approaches sports gamblers take when they bet on MLB games. The first one is based on intuition and picking winners of the game, and not paying much attention to the odds or numbers. The second approach is a mathematical betting strategy based on numbers, where the goal is to identify value bets.

The second approach, which is based on numbers and statistics is used by bookmakers and the best baseball handicappers in the World. Well-defined baseball betting systems, arbitrage betting, and MLB betting models are some of the best methods that help baseball bettors maximize profits.

How I started with using betting models

When I started betting in 1998, I soon realized, that truly profitable sports betting is all about betting on “good” odds with the combination of long-term money management strategies.

My first simple betting method based on numbers

The question was how to identify “good” odds or find value bets. At the start, I was simply comparing my local bookmaker’s odds and online betting sites’ odds. If my local bookmaker didn’t move the line, after all, major online betting sites moved the lines, I knew that this was potentially a good bet. Without trying to pick the winner or giving too much weight to my personal opinion about the game.

Excel betting spreadsheets

Later, when my local bookmaker moved the odds much quicker, these betting opportunities were smaller and disappeared quickly. I started building my first betting models in excel. I tried different methods for many leagues and sports. Then I found that statistical data has long been collected in baseball. I started using these statistics in my favor and made my first serious betting profits.

My first MLB betting models were made in excel spreadsheets, where the goal of the model was to estimate:

  • projected runs
  • projected winning probability
  • projected odds
  • projected value by comparing my projected odds and bookmaker’s odds

The baseball betting model was successful year after year and later I implemented the formulas and algorithms into Google Spreadsheets.

MLB Betting Model in Google Spreadsheets

My MLB betting model is the heart of my baseball betting strategy. The main goal is to compare a team’s offense with other teams’ defense, which is a combination of starting pitcher and bullpen.

When baseball season is on, I analyze every single game. That means, that I use my baseball betting model to project winning percentages independently from bookmakers’ odds. Most of my data is automated and automatically pulled from the internet.

How to I use my baseball betting model?

Once the model is created, the use is very simple. Before the new season, I need to update stats and some links, where the data is automatically pulled from the internet. This is what we call preparation for the new season. I go through the lineups and check possible trades, new players, and teams.

MLB betting projections

Once the season starts, the games are played almost every day. Every morning I project the odds for all games. With the prepared baseball betting model, I first quickly check potential lineups and then add into the model necessary information about a single MLB game:

  • The name of the teams
  • Pitchers and their piching hand (L/R)
  • Bookmakers odds

The model outputs the team’s winning percentages and my projected odds – this is what we call betting projections. This is automatically compared with bookmakers’ odds, where a big discrepancy means a potentially good bet.

What does the model include?

My MLB betting model is a lineup-based betting model, where individual statistics for each player are included in estimations.

The model includes:

  • Projected winning probabilities for both MLB teams in a single matchup
  • Projected US odds and decimal odds
  • Projected total runs scored in game
  • Estimated value based on adjusted kelly criterion
  • Full game and 1st half betting projections
  • Individual players statistics
  • Pitchers statistics
  • Bullpen statistics
  • Advanced statistics, that take into account factors like ballparks effects
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